Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.293090 0.343403 0.398219 0.462179 0.534550 0.613689 0.706560
2025-04-27 0.210288 0.272233 0.345285 0.437068 0.548519 0.678645 0.841179
2025-05-04 0.157168 0.224416 0.310027 0.425336 0.574691 0.759570 1.003410
2025-05-11 0.117278 0.185286 0.278855 0.413836 0.599884 0.843202 1.180631
2025-05-18 0.081578 0.144064 0.237552 0.382500 0.595411 0.889617 1.318216
2025-05-25 0.055068 0.109777 0.199278 0.348797 0.582971 0.924597 1.446558
2025-06-01 0.039558 0.089050 0.177431 0.335955 0.599465 1.003310 1.647130
2025-06-08 0.028002 0.071751 0.157334 0.322270 0.613019 1.080338 1.856065
2025-06-15 0.021513 0.062342 0.149260 0.327980 0.659758 1.215442 2.170152
2025-06-22 0.014452 0.048667 0.129203 0.307666 0.658874 1.274544 2.372810
2025-06-29 0.009956 0.039102 0.114916 0.295481 0.670891 1.357301 2.624361
2025-07-06 0.006691 0.031054 0.101438 0.281864 0.678070 1.432971 2.873209
2025-07-13 0.004810 0.026333 0.095076 0.283740 0.719116 1.579706 3.270022
2025-07-20 0.003284 0.021642 0.087015 0.279795 0.747994 1.708588 3.651067
2025-07-27 0.002327 0.018432 0.082064 0.282643 0.792923 1.875323 4.121205
2025-08-03 0.001610 0.015557 0.076925 0.283813 0.834833 2.042187 4.610277
2025-08-10 0.000951 0.011914 0.067053 0.268607 0.835215 2.124350 4.945607
2025-08-17 0.000517 0.008793 0.057095 0.249680 0.822588 2.177594 5.230239
2025-08-24 0.000313 0.007084 0.052069 0.245069 0.846643 2.314966 5.700850
2025-08-31 0.000180 0.005618 0.047066 0.238807 0.865210 2.442706 6.164641
2025-09-07 0.000122 0.004962 0.046002 0.246948 0.926657 2.678002 6.879369
2025-09-14 0.000059 0.003712 0.040119 0.233967 0.923550 2.759458 7.268793
2025-09-21 0.000029 0.002884 0.036051 0.226783 0.936719 2.882485 7.761732